Winning the National Popular Vote

A debate has been going on for some time concerning the political effect of adopting the direct election of the president, whether we accomplish that through a constitutional amendment or through the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC). Let me first elaborate on these terms:

·       A constitutional amendment would provide for the direct election of the president by the voters. It would state simply that the candidate who receives the most votes becomes president. This amendment would abolish the Electoral College and would remove any conceivable role for Congress in deciding the outcome of the presidential election.

·       The NPVIC proposes to accomplish the direct election of the president without modifying the constitution. The NPVIC is an agreement among signatory states in which each state pledges to cast all of its electoral votes to the candidate that wins the national popular vote. This agreement will come into effect when states with a total of at least 270 electoral votes have agreed to it. This compact can work because the constitution grants to each state the power to cast its electoral votes in whatever manner it sees fit.

Some have argued that elimination of the Electoral College system would prevent any Republican from ever again winning the presidency. Supposedly, this is due to the overwhelming Democratic majorities in California, New York, and several other large states. I find this argument completely specious. In my lifetime, Republican presidential candidates have won the most votes and the presidency in 1952 and 1956 (Eisenhower), 1968 and 1972 (Nixon), 1980 and 1984 (Reagan), 1988 (George H.W. Bush), and 2004 (George W. Bush).  In fact, the only Republican who won the presidency without ever winning the national popular vote was Trump in 2016.

And why would Republicans give up on California? Can we remember Gov. Pete Wilson, Gov. Ronald Reagan, and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger? It’s true that in the last several elections, California has gone decidedly blue, but if every citizen’s vote were equal nationwide, perhaps Republicans would compete more effectively in California (and Democrats might do likewise in states they now lose handily). If Republicans want to win a national election, they need to focus on convincing a majority of the electorate to support them, and not depend on a splintered Democratic opposition or a third party spoiler or arcane rules (like the Electoral College) to give them an artificial win when moist voters choose the other guy.

Most Americans (58% according to recent polls) would like the candidate with the most votes to become president. In this regard, the Electoral College system has failed us five times. Let’s fix this now so we never again have an election in which the voters have clearly selected a winner but the antiquated rules of the game turn it into a cliffhanger or, worse, a loss for the voters’ choice